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My opinion: Xi will. Trump hopefully learned his lesson at the Hanoi Summit where he gambled on all or nothing and he got nothing. Again, it seems like he is not preparing for the G-20. If he sticks to the conditions he has demanded up to now, Xi will decline. Xi has prepared his people for the ‘long march,’ so he knows he has only one direction to follow. If Trump causes Xi to lose face at the G-20, he will only remain on his one way dead-end road. He needs a win to bolster his election chances. His attempt at bullying Mexico got muted results and his gambit against Iran is being met with disbelief. It is getting worse rather than better and he desperately needs a big win.
Bottom line, the world is wary of Trump and his administration. World opinion is turning against him. He is making friends more wary and alliances broken. Treaties and agreements seem not worth the paper they are written on. The world is adjusting to this new reality. Where America was once considered the world leader, it now looks like an island unto itself only caring about what it thinks is good for America and not for the world. Over the next 10 years, as the BRI takes root, Americans will wake up to find themselves with a nation in decline and will blame its leaders if we don’t change course.
Globalization is here to stay, the US can stay away from it, but it will only cause more decline in the US economy. Even now, with Trump’s rhetoric against immigrants, he is setting the environment that is against all but white people, a racist atmosphere that will cause decline in the pipeline that fed America’s technology rise, the technology immigrant. What was a brain gain is turning into a brain drain. The dice are loaded in favor of China and others who can climb further up the economic ladder. With that equality, it will be harder for the US to be the master of all and dominate the world with its control and authority.
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